What would Alabama stand to lose in a trade war with Mexico and Canada?

Alabama dodged a bullet when promised tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were postponed last week, but Pres. Donald Trump’s cold trade war isn’t done yet.

The 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, which were set to start on Feb. 4, are now scheduled to take effect on in early March after Trump announced a 30-day pause on the plan.

Those plans could change again, but if the tariffs were to go into effect, Alabama’s economy stands to take a big hit.

Mexico and Canada are among Alabama’s biggest international trade partners. And imports from both nations are vital for some of the state’s biggest industries.

Alabama imports more goods from Mexico than any other nation, and it’s not even close. Canada ranked fifth, and was near the top for receiving Alabama’s exports — an important distinction as Canada had at one point promised tariffs of its own on American goods.

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Alabama imported some $37.6 billion worth of goods from Mexico between 2019 and 2024, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The next closest nation, South Korea, sat at $30.2 billion.

Roughly 20% of Alabama’s total international imports came from Mexico during that time.

In 2024 alone, Alabama imported roughly $6.9 billion in Mexican goods. The biggest single chunk of that was crude oil, which accounted for $1.4 billion.

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Mexico was Alabama’s biggest source of crude oil in 2024, beating out oil-rich Kuwait. But perhaps more important is the effect tariffs on Mexican goods would have on Alabama’s large and growing auto manufacturing industry. Alabama imports billions of dollars worth of specific parts used in the manufacturing of cars from Mexico every year, including wiring, seats and steering wheels.

Often, those parts can travel back and forth over the border more than once in the process of contsructing a vehicle, compounding the impact of tariffs.

Meanwhile, tariffs on Canada could affect a different Alabama industry.

Alabama imported more than $19 billion worth of goods from Canada from 2019 to 2024. A huge chunk of that is airplane parts, especially turbojets, which would impact Alabama’s aviation and aerospace industries, including companies and entities like NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Airbus.

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In 2024 alone, Alabama imported more than $500 million worth of large aircraft turbines from Canada. That was the biggest single chunk of the import pie that year, and it’s an industry that’s been growing in Alabama.

The second largest category was general parts of airplanes or helicopters. The state also imports many parts for cars, along with about 1,500 other types of Canadian goods.

In 2024, Alabama sent more good to Canada — nearly $4.3 billion worth — than any other nation. By far the largest export good from Alabama to Canada is manufactured cars.

Mexico was second on Alabama’s export list in 2024.