Webinar “Navigating global trade tensions”

On 20 November, Credendo hosted its webinar on global trade tensions, with a focus on the consequences of US trade policies in Latin America and Asia. Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO of Credendo, opened the discussion by highlighting the impact of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and reaffirmed the importance of Credendo’s role in supporting the Belgian economy and international trade in an increasingly risky and fragmented world.

Keynote speaker André Sapir, Professor Emeritus at Université Libre de Bruxelles and Senior Fellow at Bruegel, confirmed the “Trump effect”. He placed it in perspective though, by emphasising that the US only counts for 13% of Europe’s global imports of goods. He emphasised that the real concern lies in the US violating WTO non-discrimination principles, which can potentially influence other major players and therefore the entire system. André Sapir stressed that US trade policies are not just about tariffs, but also about challenging the rules-based international world order.

Credendo experts Pascaline della Faille and Jolyn Debuysscher explained how Asia and Latin America have adapted their global economic strategies in a context of economic warfare. With regard to Asia, uncertainty remains and is affecting supply chains in spite of the temporary trade truce between the US and China and the trade agreements most Asian countries have concluded with the US. The US is pressuring its trade partners to take sides in its ongoing rivalry with China.
In Latin America, US tariffs serve broader political goals, including topics such as immigration, drugs and security. The Trump administration aims to reinforce its regional influence, especially given the area’s vast mineral resources, while trying to curb Chinese influence. However, the overall economic impact has been modest, as most Latin American countries face a 10% minimum tariff. Long-term risks are more structural and harder to reverse though as US coercive trade policy is part of a broader, long-term shift in global power dynamics.

The final speaker, Caroline Ven, CEO of pharma.be, highlighted the significant impact of trade tariffs on the biopharmaceutical industry, which is the beating heart of the Belgian economy. In 2024, Belgium’s biopharmaceutical exports, far surpassed its famous beer and chocolate exports. The US trade policy announced on 20 January, and its executive order of 12 May have disrupted the sector, causing uncertainty and affecting investments in research and development. In addition, Caroline Ven stressed the need to pay attention to developments within our own domestic market and not be blinded by what is happening in the US.

To conclude, André Sapir and Nabil Jijakli encouraged prioritising Europe’s competitiveness and autonomy, pointing to opportunities in various sectors.

Credendo’s next webinar is scheduled for February. In the meantime, the Global Risk Atlas 2026, created in collaboration with Trends/Trends-Tendances and The Economist, scheduled to be published in mid-December, will further explore part of today’s themes.