Calling the AI boom a bubble is ‘dangerous,’ warns veteran investment strategist Brian Belski

Brian Belski is pushing back against Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem’s warning that AI-driven stock valuations are “stretched” as a result of excitement over AI, calling comments like these “fear-laden.”

The former BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist, who left his position at the bank last week, said AI remains early in its cycle and should be assessed based on company fundamentals rather than headline-driven sentiment.

“I think too many people are throwing around the word bubble,” Belski said Friday in an interview. “Just because asset prices go up in real estate or bonds or stocks or whatever, doesn’t mean it’s a bubble.” He stressed that valuations alone are a weak predictor of future stock returns.

Belski had been in his role at BMO for 13 years, the longest stint of his career. He said the move will let him focus on his core interest: advising on stock portfolios. 

In his interview with The Logic, he spoke candidly on subjects ranging from starting his own advisory firm to where he sees value in the markets. 

He said Canada’s equity market has delivered one of its strongest stretches relative to the U.S. in decades, but acknowledged that if you were to survey people on the street, you’d find few who believe that.  

He pointed to Canada’s Big Six banks, tech sector heavyweights like Shopify and consumer companies like Dollarama, Aritzia and Alimentation Couche-Tard as examples of companies with durable business models and consistent execution. Gold, he said, is a different matter. Belski warned that many domestic investors are crowding into the precious metal simply because it’s been rallying, with little consideration of its underlying fundamentals. 

Belski expects small- and mid-cap performance to improve as markets normalize. AI remains a key long-term theme, he said, but the real investment story lies in areas like power grids and efficiency. He added that manufacturing-related investment is also poised to become a major driver of capital spending.

In a LinkedIn post on Friday, the Wall Street veteran announced the launch of his new portfolio advisory firm, Humilis Investment Strategies, based in Naples, Fla. The firm’s team includes two former BMO employees: Nick Roccanova, who previously served as head of U.S. equity strategy and Sooyun Hong, a former portfolio strategy analyst with the bank.

“It’s been a dream of mine to have my own company,” Belski said. “This will be the first time that I’ve actually worked for myself.”