High supply, trade pressures drop coffee prices: ICO July report

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has reported a sharp drop in global coffee prices over July as supply surplus and international trade pressures continue to influence the sector.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 239.31 US cents/lb in July, which is a 12.1 per cent decrease on the already falling June 2025 average of 295.06 cents/lb. The price drop is also seen in the 9.6 per cent year-on-year decrease when compared to July 2024.

Dropping prices across June and July look to be in reaction to an ongoing strong global supply of coffee, particularly Robusta.

As a result, Robusta prices fell more than any other segment, down 14.8 per cent to 167.19 US cents/lb.

Total green bean exports rose 3.3 per cent to 10.23 million bags in June, with a 16.9 per cent rise in Robustas and 14.8 per cent rise in Other Milds underpinning the overall increase, despite a 21.3 per cent drop in Brazilian Naturals.

Certified Robusta stocks in London now stand at 1.18 million bags, which is the highest mark since June 2023 and a 35.8 per cent jump on June 2024.

Asia and Oceania exports jumped 38.6 per cent year-on-year to 3.34 million bags, while Africa increased its exports by 28.1 per cent to 2.19 million bags. There was also a marked increase in exports from Mexico and Central America, which rose 18 per cent to two million bags.

Exports from South America, however, have fallen to 4.16 million bags – an 18.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2024.

Despite the export dip from South America, Safras & Mercado has stated the Brazilian harvest is currently 84 per cent complete, meaning it is ahead of last year’s mark of 81 per cent as of 23 July 2025.

The ongoing international trade pressures created with by the uncertainty and implementation of United States (US) tariffs continues to influence the world’s economy – including coffee. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research projects up to a 1.1 per cent drag on global GDP if the US import tariff adjustments persist.

Recently, the US announced it would place a 50 per cent tariff on all products imported from Brazil, while other major producers Indonesia (19 per cent), Vietnam (20 per cent), and India (25 per cent) have also been slugged with the added import taxes.

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has stated that natural resources not grown in the country, like coffee, could be exempt from import tariffs if trade deals are reached.